Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur: Time to Sink the Saints

by Matthew Harris · 16th March 2023

After a difficult two weeks, Spurs secured a welcome win with a 3-1 victory over Nottingham Forest last weekend. A more attacking approach saw the team start with Harry Kane, Richarlison and Son Heung-Min up front and it paid dividends with all three technically hitting the target.

While there was a controversial VAR in place to chalk one of those goals off, surely this will be the way to go again this weekend. Like Forest, Southampton are also struggling at the wrong end of the table and, while we are away from home, another attack-minded display has to be best.

This is another Saturday 3pm kick off, but will Tottenham come away with a further three points?

Team News

Some of our long term injury victims are closing in on a return. Hugo Lloris is still pencilled in for a comeback in the early April game against Everton, while it’s now thought that Yves Bissouma could be back even sooner.

Neither will be available on Saturday, while Rodrigo Bentancur and Ryan Sessgnon are the other long term absentees. The only question mark is over Emerson Royal. The defender missed the Forest game with a minor knock, but he’s expected to be back in contention this weekend.

There are no suspensions to add to the list of potential absences.

LONDON, ENGLAND – SEPTEMBER 11, 2021: Emerson Royal (Emerson Aparecido Leite de Souza Junior) of Tottenham pictured during the 2021/22 Premier League matchweek 4 game between Crystal Palace FC and Tottenham Hotspur FC at Selhurst Park. Copyright: Cosmin Iftode/Picstaff

Match Odds

Spurs start as odds-on favourites here with BetFred and VBet among those quoting 5/6 on the away win. The draw is next at 11/4 with Unibet while victory for Southampton is out at 18/5 with Coral.

The Saints had shown signs of improvement since sacking former manager Nathan Jones. The beginning of March saw a home win over Leicester City, followed by a 0-0 draw away to Manchester United. However, a 0-2 loss to Brentford on Wednesday night leaves Southampton at the bottom of the table.

Tottenham’s home form is much better than our results on the road, so this is far from clear cut, but that form guide might suggest that the bookies have got this right.

Side Markets

Harry Kane was back on target last weekend following a lean spell in front of goal. His double strike in the first half against Forest has strengthened his position in the first goalscorer market for this Saturday where Kane starts as favourite at best odds of 13/4 with Unibet.

Son Heung-Min is next at 53/10 with VBet while Arnaut Danjuma, who is loved by the bookies, but can’t get a start, can be claimed at 11/2 with Coral and Betway.

Southampton’s first name in this market is Che Adams who is quoted at 8/1 with Ladbrokes, while other options for Spurs backers include Richarlison at 13/2 with VBet, Lucas Moura at 9/1 with BetFred, Ivan Perisic at 18/1 with Ladbrokes and Pierre-Emile Hojberg at 20/1 with Unibet.

Next on our list of side markets is Both Teams to Score which is quoted for Saturday’s game at best odds of 10/11 with Unibet. Those who want to take the No option on BTTS can get a top price of Even Money with 10Bet.

Next is Total Combined Goals where a stake Over the 2.5 line will currently be paid at 66/67 with VBet. If you want to push that up a notch, betting Over 3.5 goals is on offer at a best of 88/35 with VBet again.

If you’re looking at a quiet 90 minutes at St Mary’s, Under 2.5 Goals could be the way to go at 4/5 with Ladbrokes and BetFred.

That leaves us to sign off with our regular look at some Correct Score picks. If you agree with the bookmakers, who are expecting a comfortable afternoon for Spurs, the 3-1 away win might be worth a look at 14/1 with BetFred and Coral.

A 2-1 win for Southampton is quoted at 14/1 with Ladbrokes while the 1-1 draw can be backed at 27/5 with Vbet.

St Mary’s Stadium

Last Season

Last season’s corresponding fixture at St Mary’s ended in a 1-1 draw after Southampton played much of the second half with ten men. James Ward-Prowse had opened the scoring for the home side on 25 minutes before Mohammed Salisu saw red.

Salisu had picked up two yellow cards and his second, for a foul on Son Heung-Min led to a penalty which Harry Kane duly converted. It was all backs to the wall for the Saints in the second half and Spurs couldn’t find a way through.

Clearly this must have been a forgettable game as we couldn’t recall it here. It was played on December 28th, so maybe there was something of a Christmas hangover.

Verdict

The value of momentum appears to be open for debate in any sport. After a disappointing start to March, a more attacking approach to last week’s game ended in a positive result. If Spurs can carry that form on to Saturday, surely they should bag another three points when they play the bottom side.

It’s never that simple with Tottenham Hotspur, but we really should be winning this. As always, we’ll avoid tipping the result and we’ll focus on the side markets instead. Both Teams to Score came in for us last week. It seemed a risky punt, with Spurs managing to keep things tight at the back, but we’ll carry that over, now that we are away from home.

Richarlison was unlucky not to break his Premier League duck thanks to a marginal offside call. If the manager keeps the same formation, the chances of that elusive goal will increase and we expect the Brazilian to finally deliver.

We’re strangely positive, which can be a worry, but let’s just hope for another comfortable display and three points on Saturday.