AC Milan v Tottenham Hotspur: Champions League Campaign Returns

by Matthew Harris · 13th February 2023

Spurs have made it to the first knockout phase of this season’s Champions League and the reward is a winnable tie against Italy’s AC Milan. We’ve come across these opponents before and the club will be looking to extend a good record from previous encounters.

Milan’s form is pretty poor coming into Wednesday night’s first leg, but we know not to take anything for granted. If we can set things up ahead of the return in London, that will do nicely.

Spurs do not come into this game in the best of shape. A week ao, it had all looked so positive after beating EPL champions Manchester City. Since then, long term injuries to key players and a 4-1 defeat to an average Leicester City side puts us in a weaker position coming into this Round of 16 game.

Team News

Rodrigo Bentancur is the latest casualty and we wish him well as he recovers from his season-ending ACL injury. We already knew that the club would be without Hugo Lloris until April at best, while Yves Bissouma will also miss out.

It’s likely to leave Pape Sarr and Oliver Skipp in the defensive midfield positions as Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg is serving a Champions League suspension. The one glimmer of good news sees Cristian Romero available, returning from his Premier League ban.

That’s what we know so far, but there is the potential for added bad news in the pre-match press conference.

Cristian Romero

Match Odds

The bookmakers are undecided about this one and it’s possible to get the same odds for a Spurs win or a victory for Milan. Elsewhere, the Italians are narrow favourites and you can claim a home win on the night at 8/5 with Betway. Tottenham follow at a top price of 2/1 with Unibet while the draw can be found at best industry odds of 12/5 with Quinnbet.

Remember, those are the figures for the first leg only. We’ll deal with the To Qualify betting when Spurs face their home tie next month.

Tottenham’s domestic form has been mixed to say the least, but Milan’s is simply poor. They’ve lost three and drawn one of their last four matches. The team remain fifth in Serie A and it may be a good time to play them if we can only take advantage.

Side Markets

Harry Kane has survived the injury plague so far and our main striker is the favourite to open the scoring here at best industry odds of 22/5 with Unibet. AC Milan’s Olivier Giroud is next at 11/2 with Quinnbet while Son Heung-Min and Arnaut Danjuma can both be found at 7/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral.

VILLARREAL, SPAIN – OCTOBER 17: Arnaut Danjuma of Villarreal CF celebrates scoring their team’s first goal during the LaLiga Santander match between Villarreal CF and CA Osasuna at Estadio de la Ceramica on October 17, 2022 in Villarreal, Spain. (Photo by Aitor Alcalde/Getty Images)

Milan have a wide attacking threat and there could be some interest in an old nemesis of ours – Divock Origi at 7/1 with Unibet. Meanwhile, other options for Spurs backers include Richarlison at 10/1 with Quinnbet, Lucas Moura at 13/1 with Unibet, Dejan Kulusevski at 15/1 with Unibet, Ivan Perisic at 20/1 with Quinnbet and Ryan Sessegnon at 30/1 with Unibet.

Elsewhere, Both Teams to Score is on offer for Tuesday night’s game at 8/11 with Quinnbet. If you prefer to take the ‘no’ option on BTTS, this is available at a top price of 15/13 with 10Bet.

Next, we’ll take a look at the Total Goals betting where a stake Above the 2.5 line can be found at 28/29 with VBet. By taking that up one stage, we can obtain 27/11 with VBet again for backing Over the 3.5 line.

Those that are expecting a quiet evening in Milan on Wednesday can currently get 17/20 with Unibet to go Under 2.5 goals.

We’ll finish with some Correct Score options and anyone who is supremely confident about our chances in Italy can claim a 2-1 away win at 19/2 with Unibet. A 2-0 victory for AC Milan is quoted at 12/1 with BetFred and VBet. A 1-1 draw would do nicely and that’s available at 11/2 with Quinnbet.

Qualification and Head to Head

AC Milan progressed from a qualifying group that included Chelsea, Red Bull Salzburg and Dinamo Zagreb. They lost twice, but a record of three wins and a draw was enough to see them come through in a comfortable second place.

It’s interesting to note that the Italians lost twice to Chelsea without registering a goal in either game. They also dropped points away to Salzburg in a 1-1 draw, but they would eventually qualify with a four-point cushion in what proved to be a weak section.

Spurs fans will have fond memories of our most recent encounters with this Serie A side. Back in 2011 when Tottenham played in the Champions League under Harry Redknapp, we took on AC Milan in the first qualifying stage. A single Peter Crouch goal was enough to see us progress over the two legs.

We had previously faced AC in the UEFA Cup back in our successful 1971/72 campaign. A 3-2 aggregate win saw Spurs progress to the final where we overcame Wolverhampton Wanderers. We have, therefore, yet to lose against Milan and will be targeting more positive results across the next two games.

Verdict

We have to believe: Those are the more positive messages coming through on social media this weekend. From that upbeat position, we’ve probably all seen the tweets go rapidly downhill. Our defence was woeful on Saturday and now we are without three key defensive midfielders who may have afforded an additional layer of protection.

From a personal perspective, I’d like to see Ollie Skipp come in and do well. He’s not been the same player since his injury, but there was potential, even if I know that many won’t agree.

Oliver Skipp

Back to Wednesday and it’s probably all about damage limitation: Grabbing an away goal while keeping things quiet at the other end. We’re not supremely confident and we’ll end by suggesting Under 2.5 goals and the ‘no’ option on Both Teams to Score. Hopefully we’ll be surprised on the night by a strong response from the players who are left.